Recovery? Recession? Ask the Experts, they are everywhere….

After more than 25 years in Banking and the past couple of years doing consulting, I admit to being a rabid reader of all things market and economic related. One thing I know for sure is that there is never a shortage of opinions on any side of an economic argument. My ever supportive wife might ask suggestively “Honey, are you using the Rogaine twice a day?” just as I was thinking things were looking a bit fuller up on top. I can usually find another opinion and did as my 4 year old granddaughter stroked my hair one day while we both sat watching “Hotel for Dogs” for the 10^th time. “She quietly whispered “Papa, your hair looks nice”. Hmmm, There you go, I got the opinion I was looking for.

Finding work has been a very frustrating 7 days a week chore. That alone tells me things about the markets and economy. Watching my favorite pundits on the cable financial channels while following up on job leads on my computer, most were exhorting the positive moves of the S&P index since March 9^th (the hopeful bottom of the hellhole in everyone’s 401k and investment portfolios). “We could be at the beginning of a new Bull Market” was the common refrain. My ears perked up and I listened intently as a contrarian talked about “her view that Unemployment is still going to move much higher”. Living here in California where the Unemployment rate is already above 10% and that does not include hundreds of thousands of people like me whose benefits have expired or who are underemployed, that comment hit like “a low blow”.

As a Bank Executive I would train my Branch Managers to use their common sense to gauge what the “market” was really doing. I would tell them to go down to their local Lowes or Home Depot on a Saturday. If you had to search to find a good parking spot “the market is good”. If you pulled right in and had no trouble parking, (and the aisles were sparse of customers), then the economy was in trouble, big trouble. I would look at my Sunday stop at Costco in similar ways.

Yesterday, June 12 was the wedding anniversary for me and the Mrs. All 3 kids with their kids decided to take us out for dinner. We went to a local spot where several major chains are within a block of each other (Calif. Pizza Kitchen, BJ’s Pub, Macaroni Grill, Cheesecake Factory, Buca di Beppo, and others). The average wait time at 7:30pm on this Friday night ranged from 1 ½ hours at BJ’s to 45 minutes at Cheesecake Factory. I was actually happy to see this. Even balancing the fact that it was Graduation Day for a number of high schools in the area, the fact that people were moving from backyard grad parties to restaurants is a good sign for the economy. 

Are we out of the woods? Hell No!

Is it safe to jump into the market? After a 2000 point run-up without a meaningful correction, probably not!

Are the markets and the economy showing signs of improvement? Most definitely yes? 

Positive trends are in the air, or at least are waiting for a good table on a Friday night.

And my hair looks good too…..so says one of my trusted experts!